COMMENTS:
Voted : Yes, give me $50k
Is there any strategy required to play that game?
^ no, but the deal is worth over $200k.
would you give up $150k in opportunity cost, just so that you can run away with tail between your legs? ;)
by LCD on Thu Oct 26, 06 9:57am
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^Just know when to quit.
It may be worth $200,000.00, but there is an 80% chance that you'll end up with $10.00 or less.
No Thanks! Give me the $50,000.00, and I'll be on my way.
^wrong, there is 20% chance, not 80%, on this choice anyway.
by LCD on Thu Oct 26, 06 10:09am
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^Wrong. You have 5 cases/choices left. You can only choose/keep 1, and you don't know which 1 is the $1,000,000.00 case/choice. Therefore, you have an 80% chance of getting a case that has $10.00 or less, and only a 20% chance of choosing/keeping the $1,000,000.00 case/choice.
Give me the $50,000.00!
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
"on this choice anyway"
I never said to play until you get a million did i?
by LCD on Thu Oct 26, 06 10:21am
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Hey! You laid out the scenerio. You said I was left with 5 choices. I just played by the rules that you set out, and the rules as you laid them out leave the chooser with a 1 in 5 (i.e., 20%) chance of choosing $1,000,000.00 and a 4 in 5 (i.e., 80%) chance of choosing $10.00 or less.
In all seriousness, I liked Howie Mandel a lot better when he had a rubber glove on his head. 
I like him better as Dr. Fiscus.
^^ I see, you never saw this game show...
by LCD on Thu Oct 26, 06 3:18pm
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Voted : Yes, give me $50k
Cash please!
by MO_ on Thu Oct 26, 06 3:24pm
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Voted : Yes, give me $50k
Trust a mathematician. Take the money offered and go home. If you want to kill yourself over contemplating the possibilities, then ask yourself how much money you had before you stepped on the stage.
^^ I am shocked that a mathematicians would advocate taking the $50k.
I wonder if the top prize offered was $1k. Would you take $50(value of $200), instead of going another round?
by LCD on Thu Oct 26, 06 5:22pm
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Voted : Yes, give me $50k
Take the money and run. Let's hope it after taxes...
LCD: I've seen the show.
I seems you lack a basic comprehension of the law of averages.
Even thesoothsayer agrees!
Go ahead. Do it your way.
We'll compare winnings after we're done.
Just be sure to bring your cab fare with you if you want to get home after the show. You're probably going to need it.
PS. I'll be in the limosine laughing at you as I pass by you on the street.
^ rude little prick, aren't you?
Voted : Yes, give me $50k
I see both points:
In straight "game of chance" mode, it's 1:4 on for getting a pittance, which is a bad thing.
However since it's 4:1 for 1Mil, and you're {effectively} betting 50K on it, for which a bookie would pay out 200K plus stake (so 250K - from a bookie).
The 1Mil is a cheap bet, giving you 4 times the payout that the odds deserve i.e. a 20:1 payout for the oddds of 4:1.
Should you win...
Also, in this game, since 3 boxes get knocked off in the next round (chance of reaching the next round with more than 50k in the game = 4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3 - I think).
This gives you a safety net of sorts as the next offer would prob'ly be 200K (4:1).
I haven't worked out the whole problem - I don't want to, and don't think I know how, but...
On the face of it, the economic 'Bear' in me says take the cash. I {personally} wouldn't bet 50K on a 4:1 chance. I couldn't afford it, even if the payout is at 20:1.
For me not to deal at this, there would need to be either:
some desperate reason that I need win more than 50K,
for losing 50K to be affordable,
for me to have made an "in for a penny.. " pact with myself before the game,
or for me to be swept up in the cultish group dynamic/hysteria that's apparent in the British show.
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