COMMENTS:
Voted : Vietnam
My personal opinion is that it would primarily be Vietnam (as there is already a lot of it already going on there). Well, more like a combination of countries- Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and possibly Burma- but Vietnam would be the primary one.
But if North Korea had opened up its economy a bit more by that time, then I believe it would definitely go to North Korea.
I think you're dead on, Socrates. India is slowly moving out of poverty.
^India is slowly moving out of poverty (meaning you won't be able to count on them for cheap labour)
Probably various south east asian nations.
Vietnam, phillipines, indonesia, and a so on.
That entire region is going to become very prosperous.
doubt that would ever happen. they have a workforce pool about several hundred million people to employ -- i think it is estimated to be about 650 million. that's an awful lot of people that need jobs. right now only a small fraction of that pool has jobs outside of farming.
Kev24- It is not needed for the entire country to become wealthy. What is needed (as in the experiences of Japan, and then South Korea and Taiwan) is a very significant middle class to rise. This middle class being comfortable having the basics in life, yet separated from the power brokers in the country, began to demand other things- including rights such as working conditions. That is how it unfolded in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Perhaps the same may happen in China- so far it probably seems to be going along that path.
you can't compare japan to china. you can't really compare any emerging economy to china, except maybe india.
china has a massive population -- do you realize how many mouths they have to feed? for them to even have a large enough middle class base, they'd need to have an economy of about $20 - 30 trillion.
china has an urban unemployment rate of about 150 million people and that's not even factoring in rural unemployment. in some rural areas there is total unemployment of over 40%.
the situation with china is totally different on so many levels. what about education? even if their middle class base was to rise significantly -- which it won't, that still leaves about 250 million people without jobs and most of the people in china's rural areas are completely uneducation.
^ uneducated ;)
Kev24- True. China is definitely different because of its size. It will take a much longer time than it did for the likes of Taiwan, for a trickle down effect to significantly take place in such a larger country.
^ yeah, like 100 years. or more. their population control measures are having an adverse effect. few females and within 25 years, a disproportionatly high perecentage of old people to take care of -- all the while all those male babies are maturing and will want jobs to support thier families. right?
Yes, it is incredible. There are more unemployed people in China than there are people in the American workforce.
Kev- I believe we will see a China with a very developed and wealthy coastal region, and a large gap between this and the poorer inland. Most of the industrial development and the jobs are in the coastal provinces. So when living standards continue to rise there, a middle class will take root there it seems. The coastal regions are also of the most political pressure, and will put more pressure for higher economic standards. Such developments on the coastal regions alone may be enough to pressure a raise in national economic standards and thus outsourcing of jobs out of China to elsewhere.
^ i'm sorry, but that makes no sense at all. especially from an economic model.
"The coastal regions are also of the most political pressure, and will put more pressure for higher economic standards. Such developments on the coastal regions alone may be enough to pressure a raise in national economic standards and thus outsourcing of jobs out of China to elsewhere. "
^ they can put all the pressure they want, but you keep failing to account for the masses -- those hundreds of millions of uneducated people with no jobs. what? are they just going to snap their fingers and make them all disappear? no. so my question back to you is what kind of political pressure are they going to put and what on earth does outsourcing have to do with it??
you talk about a raise in economic standards like it was something the chinese government could just grant like a genies wish.
i'm telling you, china as an economic model cannot in any way be compared to developed western economies.
china's infastructure is almost non-existent outside of large cities. they have to pay to modernize that. they're spening more on their military, so that's less money to bring about this raise in economic standards you keep talking about. the list goes on man.
sorry dude, it's not going to happen. as people move up to the middle class, there are hundreds of millions in the peasant class -- why would they outsource jobs when those peeps are a resource -- and a threat.
"Most of the industrial development and the jobs are in the coastal provinces."
^ that's also not true so you know. you must be aware that virtually all of their new factories are actually not even china's -- they're western financed and mass produce products on behalf of western companies. those factories are not pounding out products for chinese companies -- they're pounding out stuff that is almost all owned by western companies. that's another flaw in your china outsourcing theory --- how can they outsource work that has been outsourced to them for products they don't even own? kind of defeats the whole purpose, right?
Kev- When I speak of improved economic conditions, I am referring to a demand for a rise in the minimum wage- which usually occurs when a strong middle class rises and exerts its independent political weight, and this indeed has the potential to chase away jobs to elsewhere. In regards to the millions of very poor being existent, a strong middle class could still have the capability of pressuring for change nonetheless for better working conditions, rights and pay.
Of course most industrial development is foreign companies doing so. And that is mostly in the coastal regions. So of course it will be the foreign companies that would be outsourcing from China and not the Chinese themselves.
Of course, China as present is not anywhere close to the developed countries of the world. But this ballot is 1) About a future scenario and 2) It is purely hypothetical, which is why the ballot question begins with 'if'.
^yeah i got all that. i'm telling you it's a big if and most likely a never. as for people exterting political pressure -- it's a pretty brutal regime. no one exerts pressure on them. it's the other way around. their biggest fear is peasant revolt. understand why outsourcing is not going to happen in china for a very long time, if ever.
Kev- Taiwan and South Korea were brutal dictatorships not long ago, yet middle-class pressure succeeded.
But I am not entirely optimistic about China either, and am definitely not its fan at all. I consider the positives, but I do not place blind faith in it. I also consider the negative scenarios regarding China's future.
We'll just have to wait and see how it all unfolds I guess.
Voted : North Korea
Just a hop, skip and a jump away.
socrates, those countries didn't have a population of about 1.2 billion. china does. and of that population, about 1.1 billion are dirt poor. the middle class will not be large enough or influential enough. study china's history in recent times and you'll learn why their biggest threat is a revolution by un-fed, unemployed peasants.
Voted : Africa
anartica. let put those lazy penguins to work!
by LCD on Wed Jan 31, 07 5:03pm
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