COMMENTS:
Voted : yes
I'd say.
Voted : no
There is no immediate yes or no to that question. Look, all economies (all) have cycles. We do, European nations do, Japan certainly did, China is now...all economies have peaks and valleys. To think that everything runs along smoothly all of the time is nonsense and unrealistic. So to anyone who belives that bumps in the road are all signs of doom and gloom, yes, they are in serious denial about the economy.
Remember, it is still the largest single economy in the world. If it contracts even 25%, it would still be the second largest economy. So you tell me...are we in denial?
For people who believe that there can never be or will never be bumps in the road, then yes, they are in denial.
But as for the fundamental strength of the economy, it is very sound.
I guess the question you need to answer is, do you consider the fact that it is the largest single economy in the world a fluke? You cannot take corrections in the market and say "okay, that's it, we're done." But that's what many (you?) seem to do. It's fatalistic thinking. So the USA has never had a recession before? Europe hasn't? Britain had a housing crisis a few years ago that mirrored ours. There's doing okay. :)
You have to look long-term, both backwards and forward.
Maybe if you could outline what makes you question it and give an historical comparison (e.g. these factors have never existed before or these factors have existed before).
The economy will still expand this year...it is expanding. Just not at the rate that was projected.
Did you also stop to consider that the mainstream popular news is a factor in this? You have novice reporters reporting on things they are clueless about and the people get all gloomy and cut spending and so the cycle goes.
So if you know the fundamentals, you know that the condition is very sound...it's just having corrections and downturns in certain high-profile areas. Nothing new at all. You should know that.
What a bunch of depressive people on here. :)
Voted : yes
Yes, they are. But there are a few of us left who understand the situation and refuse to be swayed by false promises and arrogance.
The vast majority of people do not believe that this country can go into a depression. Most Americans believe that the government has "safeguards" to prevent another depression. The reality is that at this point in time, the federal government has very little control over the economy and financial market. It can delay the pain by cutting the rates and handing out these "economic stiumulus" checks, but that will do very little. In the short term these actions may seem to help, but in the long term, they do absolutely nothing at all. Yes, I believe that most people in the U.S. are in denial. I believe that a large part of America doesn't even know what "financial strength" means.
Could you then define financial strenght RTI? What do you determine to be elements of financial strenght? Please elaborate.
patch22us, when your country has a national debt of 12 trillion dollars and 45 trillion dollars in obligations over the next 30 years, it does not matter how strong your economy is. When the world experiences peak oil, it won't matter if you're first in the world or last, you will be crushed. When countries all around the world reject the dollar and start trading in Euros and Yen, it won't matter if you have a GDP of 13 trillion or 13 million.
At this point for America, it doesn't matter if it's first or last. Because the burdens on America's economy and financial market are too much for any economy to handle.
Patch, financial strength is a combination of things. The value of your currency, national debt, trade, and the financial market all play a significant role in defining a nations financial strength.
The $45 trillion you speak of is of course obligations to Social Security and Medicare and to some extent, other social programs. However, all nations have those obligations. The United States is not unique in that. We are unique in that we openly calcualte those obligations in our future projections. Most countries do not.
So what percentage of the total GDP is the public debt, verses the national debt? And on the national debt component, what percentage is actually owed to a foreign government? There is a huge difference between the public debt and the true national debt, can you break out what of the number you gave ($12 trillion) is public as opposed to national debt?
Can you also elaborate to what extent you're factoring in: real estate (including public lands), natural resources (tapped and as yet untapped), manufacturing (soft and hard line) as well as technological.
On the currency exhange issue, it would help to educate me if you could comment on the Euro, the Yen and the Pound in regards to their respective national GDP's and factor in that they have never been reserve currencies. I'm interested in learning your prespectives on how their economies flourished when their currency lost value (in the case of the Yen and the Pouns specifically). Thanks for your insight! :)
I forgot to ask. Can you also elaborate on the ratio of daily global output in goods and services (money exchanged) and what percentage of every dollar exchanged daily is derived from the U.S. economy. For example, the last number I recall was that it was $.65 of every dollar in international trade, daily, was somehow directly related back to the United States either in financing, manufacturing, etc. What is that number now?
Yikes! Sorry! Forgot yet another question. What is the percentage of true national debt now to GDP verses what it was in previous decades. If you can share the ratio for the 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's and compare that will help to put it in perspective for me. Also, what is the debt ratio to GDP for other major industiralized economies, like EU member states, China, Japan, etc. Thanks again!
"However, all nations have those obligations. The United States is not unique in that. We are unique in that we openly calcualte those obligations in our future projections. Most countries do not."
Okay, the government calculates it. So what? It still has no real way of paying it off besides printing money and hoping that inflation will bail them out. Or if you don't like that, I'm sure you won't mind being taxed 10X more than you do already. The government hasn't layed out any real plan yet that shows how it's going to pay those future obligations or how it's going to pay off its current debt.
"So what percentage of the total GDP is the public debt, verses the national debt? And on the national debt component, what percentage is actually owed to a foreign government? There is a huge difference between the public debt and the true national debt, can you break out what of the number you gave ($12 trillion) is public as opposed to national debt?"
AND
"Can you also elaborate to what extent you're factoring in: real estate (including public lands), natural resources (tapped and as yet untapped), manufacturing (soft and hard line) as well as technological."
AND
"On the currency exhange issue, it would help to educate me if you could comment on the Euro, the Yen and the Pound in regards to their respective national GDP's and factor in that they have never been reserve currencies. I'm interested in learning your prespectives on how their economies flourished when their currency lost value (in the case of the Yen and the Pouns specifically). Thanks for your insight! :)"
You can use the google for that information; it's rather basic. While you're using the google, you can also find out how unbalanced the budget is. Or how deep the U.S. is in with the trade deficit. In case you did not know, the government does not balance the budget either. It borrows about 3 billion dollars a day to pay all of its current obligations. But that's all okay, right? Because there are "experts" who'll figure out how to pay off all of this, right?
Patch, you can find all of those things if you google them. I don't know why you want me to tell you all of those things.
Oh, so Google has all the answers? Well if you google most of what people think, you come up with about 500,000 different view points. So which is correct? Are you? Am I? I can google anything I want, if I have the time and the bandwith to actually follow what is said. Do I take CNN's point of view? Do I take MSNBC's? Do I take some blogger's point of view?
I asked you to tell me because you seem very knowledgeable. I just assumed since you were making very definitive statements, you must know the answers to all of those questions.
I guess the way I've been told, there is never just one answer. The global economy is so diverse and complicated, that to assume Google will give you the right answer is to be unrealistic.
Sure, I can tune into a news program and some dolt will read the news to me and if I were brainless, I might just say "Wow! Okay, that's the way it is!" But if Noble prize winning Economists are spending years of their lives devoted to developing scales and models and theories, do you (I) really think that I have the answer to a system that is so complex and intricate, just because some results on Google said so?
I'm asking you because you made firm statements and as such, I am trying to dig deeper and have you share your wisdom.
If you are interested in knowing all of those things, I'm sure that there is a government site that has all of those figures. Don't expect others to research for you.
It is not necessary to go that deep into the details in order to come up with a good analysis of todays economy.
I don't need a government site or Google. :) And I really don't need you to to any research for me. I tend to take the words of tried and true experts.
No need to get snotty. I'm just picking your brain. As for you statement:
It is not necessary to go that deep into the details in order to come up with a good analysis of todays economy.
by R_T_L_ on Mon Mar 17, 08 3:01pm
Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, that statement is what is wrong today. Of course there is. There is never just one event in global economics. There is never just one side to a story when you're talking about a global economy that is roughly $60 Trillion. There is never just an easy, short-cut answer when the global market today is fully inter-connected. Where is a Ford car built today? In Detroit? Or is it actually made in several different countries, with parts coming form perhaps 30 countries?
I'm not asking you to do any research. I'm asking you to cite sources and to elaborate on your statements. That's not too much to ask. Sorry if it came across wrong, but like I said, if me or anyone makes any kind of definitive statement on a very complex issue, I expect them (me) to either be an expert by training, or to back up what they say. :)
Voted : yes
Most of those poor souls don't have a clue as to how much of a muck is being made of things inside the Beltway.
patch, IMO, this cycle is being worsened by the incompetence of Mister Bush's economic advisors. Every time they step in and shore up the markets or banks when things get a little tight, they are, in effect, rewarding children who makes bad decisions. They'll keep making them.
Voted : no
No, but there are a lot of people hyperventilating and making judgments on things they know nothing about (other than what they can cut and paste or read from a one-sided blog).
Okay patch. You believe whatever you want to believe. Leave it at that.
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