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COMMENTS:
I can't help but think this problem would be alleviated if we just made them all citizens indiscriminately and issued them social security numbers without even a cursory background check.
Where's LCD? This is right up his alley.
^ Yep, LCD and sex crimes go hand in hand. ;o)
She would have flunked any respectable statistics program if that was submitted as a thesis.
The leaps of assumptions that are taken as 'causal links' is incredible.
Aren't you embarrassed by citing this absurdity?
Specifically:
Given: The occurrences were greatest in 36 states.
Given: These 36 states have the highest reported number of illegal aliens.
And she unquestioningly assumes that it is the illegals who are responsible for the increase, allowing her to immediately jump into calculating numbers?!?
Good God, man ... evaluate and analyze such 'studies' before you cite them. Just becaus etheir conclusions affirm your existing beliefs doesn't mean the study is valid.
(IMO, it would seem to raise even highe rthe need to question and analyze!) 
Funny how when Duke cuts and pastes from the BBC, he makes sure to wave that fact in our faces, yet he hasn't cited his source on this gem of of a ballot.
Cathexis, Deborah Kauflin isn't just assuming anything. She actually got a hold of ICE records and other public records in order to figure these statistics out.
"She would have flunked any respectable statistics program if that was submitted as a thesis."
O.K., I'll bite: do you actually have any background in statistical analysis, Cathexis? I mean, are you a mathematician or have you taken any sizeable number of mathematics coursework in college?
I suppose "amount" would be a bit more grammatical than "number" to refer to such coursework.
Do you guys want a link to the web site where Herzog likely got this info?
Go to:
drdsk.com/ articles.html#Illegals
Felix: A sizable amount of statistics? No. Some statistics, yes.
As for math -- I went only up to derivative calculus.
Your point? The problem does not require understanding of advanced statistics; it is (as has become usual for certain ballots) one of logic.
^ Make sure you take the space out of the URL.
It is a (very basic) statistical problem only insofar as its logic thread is seriously flawed, enough to make the entire thing worthless.
With no correlative relation, there can be no meaningful statistical analysis.
Felix, putting aside whether you agree that the conclusion exists -- look at this 'study' and the logic thread it is based on -- and tell me that I am wrong to categorically reject it.
You can't.
Cathexis, you dont have to believe this stuff if you dont want to. Just turn a blind eye like millions of other people in this country have.
Cathexis
You are correct in stating that the logic determining the causality of/correlation between, sex offences and Illegal immigrant demographics is flawed to say the least, and to be honest Im not even sure why it was included, as it is soon superceded by the factual statistics contained within the second half of the study synopsis, which are far more revealing.
"She arrives at the figure of 240,000 offenders – a conservative estimate, she says – through public records showing about 2 percent of illegals apprehended are sex offenders."
Obviously, 2% of 12 million is 240,000. As the illegals "caught2 entering the country are presumably a fairly random selection of the total total entering the country illegally each day, this is actually a reasonable calculation. And unless Im very mistaken, a 2% rate of sex offendwers is way above the national average, yes? Which, ignoring the obfuscation and flawed nature of the first half of the study presentation, actually lends the intended point of this ballot some credence i.e ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE DISPORPORTIONATELY MORE LIKELY TO COMMIT A SEXUAL OFFENCE COMPARED THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.
Yet another reason to maintain better control of your borders it seems.
lil_ape, by addressing the point directly and debating the assumption, takes the correct and defensible approach. Now, I disagree with his conclusions, but the underlying logic of his approach appears valid.
MK: I believe you miss the point.
It doesn't matter if one agrees or disagrees with the position -- the argument used to 'support' it is flawed.
If I agreed completely with the position, I would still reject this 'proof' ... because it proves nothing.
Therein lies the gist of my disagreement: People get so passionate about some position that they become completely oblivious to the soundness of the debate.
Kudos to lil_ape, at least, for affirming for me that people can disagree, but still acknowledge basic rules of logic.
^ How many kudos we talking? 
One problem of many. Wake up!
OK not being funny but. A friend of mine over here in the UK is a cop. He was telling me he was reading in a police magazine review that over 70% of crime in the UK was commited by Muslims. The majority of those crimes commited by them were sexual attacks on young women.
The simple soultion is in my opinion.To throw them all out of this country. and stop all Immigration. Im sorry but why should we let them in..honestly..why SHOULD we have to?
"that over 70% of crime in the UK was commited by Muslims."
Do you really think that that's realistic. That 4% of the entire population could be the reason for most of the crime. If that were the case then most Muslims would be in jail, not in freedom.
On the ballot: I normally don't trust these small statistics where just 1500 cases are taken but I will say this. Illegal immigration itself is a problem enough to be against it. Not knowing who comes into the country alone is bad enough. Not keeping these people documented is bad enough.
Let's be honest here. The problem cath and others have with this study isn't the way it was done, the numbers are correct, it's the conclusion.
If this woman had used the same methods to come to the conclusion that illegals are saints who would never harm a flea these same people would only too excited to show this study off.
As is she came to the 'wrong' conclusion and so she must be censored. The correct answer to the PC police is that the minority is always the victim, any study that shows otherwise is a lie.
I'd like to get cath and others in a room with the apprx. 1 million victims of these illegal aliens and let these PC nuts explain to those poor women and children that they were not harmed, that to blame these illegals for their rapes and other abuses is racist and they should instead blame the system that created yadda yadda, generic liberal nonsense.
The study is sound, the results are simply unpopular among the leftwing partisans.
Cath: I want you to deny that 12 million illegals in this country are producing at least their fair share of murderers rapists and thieves, deny that they are human and continue trying to pass them all off as hardworking saints.
Deny that they commit any crimes beyond entering the US illegally. And deny that if we regulated the border they wouldn't be here and they wouldn't be murdering, raping and stealing from americans.
Go ahead.
'states.
Given: These 36 states have the highest reported number of illegal aliens.
And she unquestioningly assumes that it is the illegals who are responsible for the increase, allowing her to immediately jump into calculating numbers?!?
Good God, man ... evaluate and analyze such 'studies' before you cite them. Just becaus etheir conclusions affirm your existing beliefs doesn't mean the study is valid. '
Ok, I see the problem, you didn't read the ballot at all. Common mistake, it happens all the time (or at least all the time on my ballots.. . . )
" Your point? The problem does not require understanding of advanced statistics; it is (as has become usual for certain ballots) one of logic."
How can you make such a categoric, sweeping statement, when you don't appear to be clear on what methodology Ms. Kauflin used? Likewise, you've admitted you've limited expertise in this area, but you've chosen to critique her methodology, which would appear to be pure, undistilled hubris, to my mind. Careful there, Oedipus Tyrannos, the gods may get angry.
I call bullshit on this one. Her reasoning wasn't exactly top notch.
^ what's the problem, 12 million immigrants at the standard 2% rate comes to 240,000. Is that incorrect in your view? Are mexicans less likely than the average person to commit sex-crimes?
Remember that these immigrants are more likely to be young men than anything else. And who makes up the prime sex/violent crime canidates?
Im man enough to admit when I made a mistake, and In this case I believe both Cathexis and I DID misread the first half of the ballot.
The fact that we both misread it would suggest to me it was somewhat badly worded though.
Ok, so I have admitted I misread the beginning of the ballot, but the statistical techniqie used in the first half of the study synopsis still seems illogical.
"Deborah Kauflin of the Violent Crimes Institute in Atlanta analyzed 1,500 cases from January 1999 through April 2006 that included serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides and child molestation committed by illegal immigrants."
This seems to suggest she took a non-random sample of 1500 illegal immigrants who are already known to have committed a sex offence. That is NOT a random sample by any stretch of the imagination. The selection bias present throughout the sample is so strong as to make the sample irrelevant from any objective statistical point of view, indeed, the selection bias is 100%.
The first half of this ballot appears to be non sensical, and pretty much unconnected to the studies conclusion, which seems to be based on the 2% of 12 million figure, which has far more merit.
I can only conclude that parts of the study synopsis are not present in the ballot description, or the study itself is non-sensical. SOMETHING is amiss here.
Herzog, I'm against illegal immigration and all but you can't hold illegals to different standards than the mainstream. You can in terms of the law but not demographics. If 2% commit crime then you can't put the other 98% in the same group. Illegal immigration isn't wrong because of that 2% (which you're making it look like), it's wrong because it's not documented, out of control and the other reasons that I mentioned above. Using this 2% as a reason to deport illegals doesn't make sense. If you're going to use that 2% as a reason then you should use it on the rest of the American public. There is no difference between a rape commited by an illegal Mexican and a rape commited by a legal American. That's just my opinion.
^but there IS a difference, because the government have the choice whether to allow these people into the country or not. Until they enter the country and gain citizenship they are not deemed to have equal rights under American law as fully fledged American citizens. If it can be shown that illegal immigrants commit disproportionately high levels of sexual offences, then something can be done BEFORE they enter the country, rather than dealing with them AFTER they have committed the crime, saving the judicial system a lot of money, and the rape victims a lot of harm and distress.
Basically, this is a problem that can be addressed at the source. Not to mention the fact that they are ILLEGAL immigrants ANYWAY!, meaning they have already broken the law, and are thus classed as criminals just by entering the country! People seem to forget this fact..
habeas: but there is a difference. Americans commit a crime, fine they should be punished and that's the end of it. Illegals commit a crime and it's a fact that had the border guard been upholding their responsibilities that would have never happened.
Are illegals more prone to crimes than others (besides the obvious)? Perhaps not, but they are certainly not entitled to commit those crimes in the US.
2% is an extremely high rate for sex offenders in a population, even young males.
" She arrives at the figure of 240,000 offenders – a conservative estimate, she says – through public records showing about 2 percent of illegals apprehended are sex offenders."
Illegals that are apprehended are more likely to be criminals.
Most illegals go by without being bothered, so when INS or another agency steps in, they've probably already done something serious.
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