LEBANON IS INCAPABLE OF FIGHTING HEZBOLLAH, IS THIS TRUE?

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LEBANON IS INCAPABLE OF FIGHTING HEZBOLLAH, IS THIS TRUE?


[+] serious ballot by herzog
created Wed Aug 09, 06

Let's ignore the current conflict, and focuse on the year just prior to it.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies hezbollah numbers between 600-1000 active fighters, with perhaps up to 10,000 reservists, although more likely 3-5000. With funding of about $100 million from Iran and a few million from other sources every year. And it is primarily an infantry force, with little artillery other than Katyusha rockets, and no armored vehicles.

The lebananese military consists of all males between 18 and 49, numbers around 75,000, and recieves a $540 million dollar budget every year. And they possess around 1000 armored vehicles from the US and Russia and have two artillery regiments.

Given the fact that even in the best case scenario lebanon can field about 7 soldiers to every 1 hezbollah terrorist, and they can spend about $4 for ever one hezbollah has to spend, and they would not be facing any significant armor or artillery to oppose theirs, is it realistic to claim as so many have that lebanon was completely helpless to do anything about hezbollah?

Yes, hezbollah would have wiped ou the lebanese military
No, the lebanese could have defeated hezbollah if they were determined to


Ballot #100233 : SEE RESULTS

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COMMENTS:
Voted : Yes, hezbollah would have wiped ou the lebanese military
You failed to note that much of the Lebanese military are Shiite muslims (like Hezbollah)... and that the fear is that portion of the military would choose not to fight Hezbollah soldiers. That would mitigate any number advantage that the Lebanese military has.
by xxxxxxxx on Wed Aug 09, 06 7:39am [+]

Voted : Yes, hezbollah would have wiped ou the lebanese military
Ha ... I don't know about your figures, but I hear that Hezbollah has about the third best military force in the region ... after Israel and Iran, I expect.

Lebanon is far behind.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 7:45am [+]

My figures are from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (as I explained) and wikipedia. But again, attack the source and ignore the article, don't research it yourself.

Now, if you could give a source for your 'third best military in the region' quote? Or are you not required to provide backup to your claims? Is that something only those on the right must do?
by herzog on Wed Aug 09, 06 7:48am [+]

And tode about 80% of their military would have to desert to put them on par with the terrorists, I don't think that would have happened.
by herzog on Wed Aug 09, 06 7:49am [+]

Tsk, herz. I put in qualifiers to indicate that I didn't have my remembered sources at hand, and thus not to take the statement as de facto information.

Conversely, Wikipedia has a varied degree of accuracy.

Further, you limit your head- to- head comparisons to numbers and weaponry. Even the vaunted IDF admits that its foe is very well trained and very formidable.

If the IDF finds it that formidable, I believe that is indicative of what Lebanon would face.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:15am [+]

I never said they were incapable if fighting Hezbollah. But I do believe they are incapable of winning against them.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:18am [+]

Oh, and one other thing that you and the Right seem utterly inbcapable of comrpehending -- this enemy doesn't sit there across from you and exchange fire.

You remind me of the stereotypical British officer during the American Revolutionary war ... "Damned yank cowards ... won't line up so we can shoot them."
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:20am [+]

This from Newsweek:

Hizbullah is proving to be something altogether new, an Arab guerrilla army with sophisticated weaponry and remarkable discipline. Its soldiers have the jihadist rhetoric of fighting to the death, but wear body armor and use satcoms to coordinate their attacks. Their tactics may be from Che, but their arms are from Iran, and not just AK-47s and RPGs. They've reportedly destroyed three of Israel's advanced Merkava tanks with wire-guided missiles and powerful mines, crippled an Israeli warship with a surface-to-sea missile, sent up drones on reconnaissance missions, implanted listening devices along the border and set up their ambushes using night-vision goggles. NEWSWEEK has learned from a source briefed in recent weeks by Israel's top leaders and military brass that Hizbullah even managed to eavesdrop successfully on Israel's military communications as its Lebanese incursion began.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:37am [+]

Newsweek also makes this excellent point:

The whole calculus of this sort of warfare has changed, as even the Israelis gave grudging high marks to their opponents. The sort of weaponry Hizbullah is deploying is normally associated with a state, and states can be easily deterred by a superior military force like Israel's. They have cities to protect, vital infrastructure.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:40am [+]

Hezbollah is under no compunction to protect infrastructure.
by Cathexis on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:41am [+]

The obvious ignorance at the base of this silly ballot is that it is a simple matter of numbers. It ignores, (of course, it would) that Hezbollah is more than just a fighting force, that it is a political party and a social movement, and that it isn't as simple as the President of Lebanon declaring war on Hezbollah. But then "simple" is usually at heart of idiotic ballots like this.

MAG_afro
by cranky on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:41am [+]

rolleyes

"Or are you not required to provide backup to your claims? Is that something only those on the right must do?"

You mean like all those herzie ballots based on unattributed cut-and-paste jobs from some hysterical rightwing blog site?

MAG_afro

by cranky on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:43am [+]

"political party and a social movement"

It is also a terrorist organization cracky.

If the Lebanese government were able to stop Hezbollah, they would have done so a long time ago.
by FiddleFaddleOnLSD on Wed Aug 09, 06 8:47am [+]

Cathexis- Your source makes Hezbollah sound very threatening to Israel. In fact it sounds like pro-Israeli propaganda justifying Israeli claims that Hezbollah was such a big threat. You quote Newsweek, so I guess you agree with them?
by xxxxxxxx on Wed Aug 09, 06 9:00am [+]

Voted : No, the lebanese could have defeated hezbollah if they were determined to
Top the ballot question. I'm not saying that they would have definitely, but there is somewhat of a chance they could have. But it would require a lot of collateral damage because Hezbollah operates in civillian areas, perhaps intentionally as a political shield- a tactic used by a lot of militant Islamists across the world.
by xxxxxxxx on Wed Aug 09, 06 9:03am [+]

Cathexis- "this enemy doesn't sit there across from you and exchange fire."

- What do they do then? Are you now admitting that Hezbollah intentionally works and oeprates itself in civillian areas?
by xxxxxxxx on Wed Aug 09, 06 9:04am [+]

Cath: you like to make hezbollah seem invincible, they aren't. You've bought in to the jihadi mystique the media has built. Remember how they told us the taliban were experienced, toughened by years of warfare, and ready to meet us head on? They said the war would last years, thousands dying, and that we'd probably lose.

In fact we ran them over in about a week.

Israel seems to be doing alright against your invincible jihadis. They only committed 30,000 troops to the war. Sure they have better air support, but wouldn't having twice as many men, a better knowledge of the terrain, and the ability to act freely within your own country give the lebanese an advantage in dealing with hezbollah?

If israel can inflict such damange in another country with half the number of men in a matter of days certainly the lebanese could have done alright on their own, had they bothered. But they didn't bother. They don't want to take out hezbollah, or at least they didn't.

You make the mistake of assuming that because some guerilla wars have been won that all guerillas are invincible. They aren't.
by herzog on Wed Aug 09, 06 10:49am [+]

But according to people on this site, religion is not a factor, so why is Cathexis referring to it as 'jihadi'?
by xxxxxxxx on Wed Aug 09, 06 11:02am [+]






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