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IRAQ TOLL REPORT 'EXAGGERATED'

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IRAQ TOLL REPORT 'EXAGGERATED'


[+] serious ballot by herzog
created Thu Oct 12, 06

THE Iraqi government today described as "exaggerated" an independent US study which estimated that 655,000 Iraqis had died since the 2003 US invasion.

US President George W. Bush had similarly called the report "not credible".



The study estimated that one Iraqi in 40 had died as a result of the conflict by comparing the death rates from the period before the war to the period from March 2003 to June 2006.

"This figure, which in reality has no basis, is exaggerated," said Iraqi government spokesman Ali Debbagh.

"It is a figure which flies in the face of the most obvious truths," he said, calling on research institutions to adopt precise and transparent criteria especially when the research concerns victim tolls.

Mr Bush said at a White House media conference that he and his top military advisers believe "the methodology is pretty well discredited" in the study.

The US president in the past has estimated the number of Iraqi deaths to be closer to 30,000, and reaffirmed that number today.

"I stand by the figure," he said. "Six hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at ... it's not credible."

Mr Bush also said: "I do know that a lot of innocent people have died, and it troubles me and grieves me."

The research by the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland was to be published tomorrow by the British journal The Lancet.

In October 2004, a paper also published in The Lancet calculated that almost 100,000 deaths had occurred in Iraq between March 2003 and September 2004 as a result of violence and heart attack and aggravated health problems.

Updating this, a team led by Gilbert Burnham of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health sought to make an estimate of deaths in the post-invasion period.

They randomly selected 47 sites across Iraq, comprising 1849 households and 12,801 people. Interviewers asked householders about births, deaths and migration and if there had been a death since January 2002 and, if so, asked to see a death certificate to note the cause.

Of the 629 deaths recorded, 547, or 87 per cent, were in the post-invasion period.

Extrapolated across the country, 654,965 premature deaths - 2.5 per cent of the population - have occurred since March 2003, the study said.

Around 601,000 were due to violence; around half of the deaths in this category were due to gunfire.

The study acknowledges weaknesses in its data collection, saying that the "extreme insecurity" during the survey limited the number of teams that ventured out to interview families and the time they could spend interviewing.

- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - -

When this report was posted on B&W it was accepted without question. Whether they lied or not, doesn't it seem to be a double standard that negative news out of Iraq is believed without any sort of scrutiny, whereas positive news is universally attacked?

It is a double standard
It is somehow not a double standard and I'll explain below
Chances are that "good news" is planted by a PR firm


Ballot #103335 : SEE RESULTS

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COMMENTS:
Voted : It is a double standard
However, inflated number or no, Iraq was a mess that could have been avoided, and definitely better handled.
by himself809 on Thu Oct 12, 06 7:41pm [+]

Oh yeah, there's credible sources. Bush, a known liar and the new Iraqi government, who owes their very existence to Bush and the United States. Sure, we'll believe them. NOT! Look I think its wrong of you to politicize this issue, which is precisely what you're doing. Its very immoral of you to minimize the deaths, which Bush caused, by playing poltics. You need to do a conscience check.
by Beauregard on Thu Oct 12, 06 7:52pm [+]

You're also being less than honest. The report clearly said that there was no way to say with certainty and the report clearly showed the means used to come up with the number. You're making it seem, as is your MO, that the report was just a fabricated lie. It was not. They were clear on the analyis and forced no one to accept it as absolute fact as to the exact number. You make it seem like the report did. It did not.

As for this quote :
"This figure, which in reality has no basis, is exaggerated," said Iraqi government spokesman Ali Debbagh.

^ Well of course he's and Bush will try to minimize it! Use your brain.

What disgusts me is that you are so quick to try and make this about the right vs. the left. That is outrageous. Where the hell is your heart? Up your butt?
by Beauregard on Thu Oct 12, 06 7:58pm [+]

To help keep you honest, here is an article on the analysis.

'655,000 Iraqis killed since invasion'

Sarah Boseley, health editor
Wednesday October 11, 2006
The Guardian


The aftermath of a Baghdad bomb attack - a study published in the Lancet estimates that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war. Photograph: Getty Images

The death toll among Iraqis as a result of the US-led invasion has now reached an estimated 655,000, a study in the Lancet medical journal reports today.

The figure for the number of deaths attributable to the conflict - which amounts to around 2.5% of the population - is at odds with figures cited by the US and UK governments and will cause a storm, but the Lancet says the work, from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, has been examined and validated by four separate independent experts who all urged publication.

In October 2004, the same researchers published a study estimating that 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war since the beginning of the March 2003 invasion, a figure that was hugely controversial. Their new study, they say, reaffirms the accuracy of their survey of two years ago and moves it on.

"Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century and should be of grave concern to everyone," write the authors, Gilbert Burnham and colleagues.

"At the conclusion of our 2004 study we urged that an independent body assess the excess mortality that we saw in Iraq. This has not happened. We continue to believe that an independent international body to monitor compliance with the Geneva conventions and other humanitarian standards in conflict is urgently needed. With reliable data, those voices that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen the tragic human cost of future wars."

The epidemiological research was carried out on the ground by teams of doctors moving from house to house, questioning families and examining death certificates. Between May and July this year, they visited 1,849 households in 47 separated clusters across the length and breadth of Iraq. The doctors asked about deaths among members of the household in a period before the invasion, from January 2002 to March 2003, and about deaths since. In 92% of cases, they were shown death certificates confirming the cause.

A total of 629 deaths were reported, of which 547 - or 87% - occurred after the invasion. The mortality rate before the war was 5.5 per 1,000, but since the invasion, it has risen to 13.3 per 1,000 per year, they say. Between June 2005 and June 2006, the mortality rate hit a high of 19.8 per 1,000.

Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point, and most likely of a range of numbers that could also be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. Of the deaths, 31% were ascribed to the US-led forces. Most deaths were from gunshot wounds (56%), with a further 13% from car bomb injuries and 14% the result of other explosions.

"Since 2004, and especially recently," writes the Lancet editor, Richard Horton in a commentary, "independent observers have recognised that the security situation in Iraq has deteriorated dramatically." The new study, he continues, "corroborate the impression that Iraq is descending into bloodthirsty chaos".

Yet, he writes, "absolute despair would be the wrong response. Instead, the disaster that is the west's current strategy in Iraq must be used as a constructive call to the international community to reconfigure its foreign policy around human security rather than national security, around health and wellbeing in addition to the protection of territorial boundaries and economic stability.

"Health is now the most important foreign policy issue of our time. Health and wellbeing - their underpinning values, their diverse array of interventions and their goals of healing - offer several original dimensions for a renewed foreign policy that might at least be one positive legacy of our misadventure in Iraq."





Please note, that it does NOT say the deaths were a result of Iraqi civilians being shot or blown up only. NOTE that it would also be cause by a severe deterioration in health care. You know, sort of like how Bush's invasion caused a complete destruction of their infastructure, like destroying their hospitals, sewer system, water supply. You know, vital things like that. Use your brain!
by Beauregard on Thu Oct 12, 06 8:33pm [+]

Who cares what the precise number of dead is? Not me. It is catastrophic, terrible, and could have been avoided with a bit of truth, restraint, and diplomacy.
by margaret123 on Thu Oct 12, 06 10:49pm [+]

Herzog you have sunk to a new low with this one. Whether the death toll is 600,000 or 30,000 it is still a huge number. It would seem that your morals are being muddied by your politics. Your ballot suggests that the wrong done here was in reporting 600,000 instead of 30,000 as though 30,000 Iraqi dead is all right by you. The wrong here Herzog is the fact that a huge number of Iraqi people have been killed in an illegal and unjust war. You complain that negative news about Iraq is believed over positive news. There is no positive news about Iraq. Iraq is in chaos, people are dying in there hundreds on a daily basis and things are going from bad to worse. Whether you believe it was right or wrong to invade Iraq is almost irrelevant at this point. What is relevant is that unless something changes thousands more will die. To politicize the issue as left versus right is to spit in the face of all those people. It’s not a case of left versus right it’s a case of wrong versus right. How could it be right and how could you justify the killing of 30,000 even 10,000 people. More people have died in the few years under US occupation than ever did under Saddam. Yes Saddam was a tyrant and an evil one at that but if the evil of his tyranny is to be measured by the numbers of dead then how are we to judge Bush and co.
by B_P on Fri Oct 13, 06 3:33am [+]

"When this report was posted on B&W it was accepted without question."

No it wasn't.
by wolf_nipple_chips on Fri Oct 13, 06 3:43am [+]

The methods used seemed fairly orthodox and reliable in ther breakdown I saw on the BBC. Complete accuracy was not a claim that the researchers made, but even their lowest estimate of 300k + Iraqi deaths is a shocking figure.
by lil_ape on Fri Oct 13, 06 7:32am [+]

Voted : It is a double standard
I don't think herzog made this an issue of left vs. right.

I believe that if the 655, 000 estimation was intentionally exaggerated- then it is those who came up with the statistic who probably had a left/right agenda.

Look, I oppose the Iraq War, BUT I oppose using exaggerations or deceit to prove it wrong. The same goes for those on the other side, whom may minimise the death toll. Neither side should exaggerate or deceive. If you truloy believe something is right or wrong, deceit is not necessary, and one can just use facts and only facts to be able to prove their point.

I don't know what the exact death toll is, but I know that it would be a lot. I have always opposed the war.
by xxxxxxxx on Fri Oct 13, 06 8:17am [+]

You may have a point, herz.

I think we all have to exercise extreme caution to assess information -- not merely to accept what affirms our current beliefs.

After all -- that is exactly what brought this country to its current state -- the unquestioning, blind acceptance of assertions that affirmed peoples' existing beliefs/ fears.
by Cathexis on Fri Oct 13, 06 8:28am [+]

^ I am addressing what I perceive as herz's general point -- didn't want to digress into specific tangents.
by Cathexis on Fri Oct 13, 06 8:30am [+]

Although, herzog -- your balloy title really doesn't reflect what I perceive to be your thesis question. That might influence people to address the specifics of the estimate instead of the more general question posed in your transition paragraph.
by Cathexis on Fri Oct 13, 06 8:33am [+]

And finally ... this has to be one of the most absolutely ironic ballots I have ever read. wink
by Cathexis on Fri Oct 13, 06 9:10am [+]

I wasnt about when the report was "accepted without question" on B and W, but if thats true then it doesnt reflect the real world, where the report was both endorsed AND discredited
by lil_ape on Fri Oct 13, 06 9:40am [+]

Beau, marge, B_P: you have misread the question. I wasn't asking "if it turns out that fewer than 600,000 iraqis have died, would you then support the war?". I was asking if there is a double standard on this site when it comes to accepting information sources. In other words, negative news about iraq (or bush, or whatever the liberal majority dislikes) is not questioned. Whereas positive news about such things is held up to intense scrutiny and usually disregarded even if it holds up.

Do you believe it constitutes a double standard when news you like is accepted and news you dislike is questioned? In other words, is it a double standard to hold two things to two different standards? This is pretty simple.
by herzog on Fri Oct 13, 06 10:50am [+]

See cathexis' first comment and socrates' entry for what this ballot was actually asking.

And cath, the ballot title was a copy from the article title that I got this from.

Had I changed the title no doubt I would have been criticized for altering the story.
by herzog on Fri Oct 13, 06 10:52am [+]

There have only been a mere 45,000 civilians killed in violent deaths in Iraq, reported and cross-checked. That's makes it like 14 times less horrifying.
iraqbodycount.org
by Applerod on Fri Oct 13, 06 12:43pm [+]

A mere 4 people feel this is a double standard.

Alot of hypocrites on this site.
by herzog on Sat Oct 14, 06 10:21am [+]

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