COMMENTS:
My vote is for Kosovo. The recent success of the Montenegro separatist movement will encourage the separatists in Kosovo.
If not Kosovo, then perhaps Quebec.
If not Kosovo or Quebec, then most probably the Basque country.
I believe that Kosovo, la République du Québec, and a 'Basque Republic' are inevitable.
I believe the most-likely will be Kosovo, as the recent success of the Montenegro separatist movement will encourage them.
If not Kosovo, then next likely will probably be Quebec.
If not Quebec or Kosovo, the next most likely I believe would be the Basque country.
I believe an independent Kosovo, la République du Québec, and a 'Basque Republic' are inevitable, the only question is when.
^ Sorry for the repeat, I thought the first one didn't work.
Anyway, this is my reasoning for choosing Kosovo, Quebec and the Basque country- the three of them are currently in democracies Serbia, Canada and Spain- thus their nationalistic feelings are less oppressed- on the contrary they are the most likely to be given referenda on this issue for self-deermination.
The other separatist movements face and would face severe military backlashes, as they are in authoritarian or militaristic nations. That is why I believe Chechnya, Kurdistan, and so on would ahve less of a chance at separation.
I had to revise your Kurd one because Kurdish land overlaps three countries, not just one.
^ That's true. I should add then that Basque country overlaps with France as well as Spain.
I think separatist movements in such overlapping cases will start in one of the countries first, and then spread later. For the Basque, I think the Spanish Basque have more of a chance of independence than the French Basque.
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