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CHINA MYTH #3


[+] serious ballot by patch22us
ACTIVE Wed Aug 08, 07 - Mon Aug 13, 07

Myth: China has not debt. Fact: China has over $1 Trillion dollars in external and internal public debt, much of it, according to BusinessWeek, is bad loans that have to be repaid by China internally and to external entities, including the United States.

Much is made about the U.S. debt, but more often than not, you don't see the mainstream media actually explaining it in the detail it needs.

For example:

"Washington, DC - Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton today called for action to address the growing vulnerability to the US economy from our increasing foreign-held debt citing that foreign nations now hold nearly half or more than $2.2 trillion of all public debt with China and Japan holding nearly $1 trillion."


Another example:
"By comparison, the US national debt stood at $8.4 trillion as of April 13, 2006, or 65% of forecast GDP. About $4.9 trillion of the US national debt is held by the public and $3.5 trillion is held intra-governmentally."

So out of that $8.4 Trillion, about $2.2 Trillion is held by foreign governments, mostly Japana and China. Each have about half. So in reality, China only has about $500 billion in true U.S external debt. And, the total external debt is in reality, less than 20% of total GDP.

Listening to sources like CNN, you'd think we owed China trillions upon trillions of dollars.

Here is what they leave out: The U.S. government lists debts as including Social Security and Medicare payments 50 years from now. So in ohter words, they look at it like "well, even though the money is not due to those programs all at once, fiscally, we project it out over the course of the next 50 years." Why?

Example:
"The United States public debt, commonly called the national debt, gross federal debt or U.S. government debt, is the amount of money owed by the United States federal government to creditors who hold U.S. Debt Instruments. As of the end of 2006, the total U.S. federal public debt was $4.9 trillion. This does not include the money owed by states, corporations, or individuals, nor does it include the money owed to Social Security beneficiaries in the future. If intragovernment debt obligations are included, the debt figure rises to $8.7 trillion. If unfunded future obligations are added (i.e. Medicare and Social Security) this figure rises dramatically to a total of $59.1 Trillion . "


So in reality, the U.S. debt is primarily owed to ourselves. Some say, if we did away with Social Security and Medicare, it pretty much goes away.

Once again, I'm not making a statement of my views on it or minimizing it, but the alarmist, ratings-grabbing mainstream media fails time and again to tell the true and accurate picture.

China's economy in reality is less than half or ours, so their debt ratio is actually equal to ours.

The main difference is that China holds huge sums of hard U.S. currency. That does not mean we owe them money as it were, it simply means that they have accumulated vast sums of U.S. dollars because they are paid in those dollars. Sometimes they need to spend them, so they buy U.S. Treasuries, which equates to the $500 or so billion we owe them. By doing so, it means the U.S Treaury has a re-influx of cash, and therefore, does not have to print money, which keeps inflation in check.

But it is not borrowed money...it is simply "buy a Treasury note now at $50.00 and in 25 years, well pay you $75.00. Every single nation on earth does that and is often how they finance their infastructure (e.g. building a bridge). They tend to keep it inernal, where as the United States has foreign countries buying those "bonds" (which is the $2.2 trillion)

I agree that it is, to a degree, overblown
I am still very worried
SORRY, THIS POLL
IS NOW CLOSED.

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COMMENTS:
There are so many incorrect assumptions and important data that is left out of this ballot that I almost didn't respond at all. I reviewed a variety of sources such as Bloomberg, New York Times, and the International Herald Tribune. Actually, most of it from memory.

The US uses these loans to finance the budget deficit. Of course, the budget deficit would be far worse if we didn't "borrow" money from social security to lessen the deficit. So eliminating social security would cause an immediate financial disaster as the government would be forced to live within reality and not future money. The US is dependent on China and other countries in lovely democratic places like the oil-rich Arab states. If China significantly reduced purchases of US dollars, this would have a major financial impact to the US.

Another issue that you neglected to mention as well is the influence that China's financial interactions with the US bring. No one cares much about Japan or Western European countries having any financial influence on the US because our values, cultures, traditions, governments, etc are all in agreement on most things. China isn't. Its a communist/fascist country. It doesn't share the same values as we do. China could exercise influence on US policy (although this would be risky) on such things as Taiwan.

China's financial institutions are best described as a disaster. Their systems is greatly unbalanced and has minimal regulation. They have a huge number of non-performing loans and loans to the state (many of which won't be paid. Great financial system, huh? Chance of a meltdown? Fairly decent.

There is too much investment being made in China from the outside. This brings too much liquidity to the internal financial markets and can easily lead to significant inflation. Providing too much capital enables bad loans which help maintain economically unviable state enterprises. Too much investment both in the public and private sectors is always going to result in waste and a misuse of resources. Companies that should never be financed, bridges that aren't needed, etc.

You neglect to mention the very real and serious problem of the yuan being seriously undervalued. This helps make Chinese products artificially cheaper and results in lost jobs (in the US). China intentionally does this. Even with some revaluing of the yuan they still maintain control of its value. With its massive purchases of dollars (over a trillion), this further exacerbates the problem. This issue isn't one of the "Lou Dobbs" variety but one that many mainstream economists desire. However, a big and more realistic valuation of the yuan especially if implemented quickly could cause even more problems. This isn't an easy situation to resolve. The US is dependant on cheap imports (usually from sweatshop countries like China) like a crack whore is dependent on crack.

What's the point of all this? China's financial system is a disaster waiting to happen. Massive reform and China conforming to international financial standards (eg. exchange rates) need to be implemented. Every economist with even half a brain cell agrees with this. If China has some major financial problems, this will cause a big fallout on the other economies in Asia and in the US. With its financial institutions and government financial policy being the way that they are, the ability of China to self correct is much less than that of other more economically free and transparent countries. An economic problem like those that befell the "Asian Tiger" countries would be much more difficult to manage. The exact same situation as that which is occurred to those countries is unlikely though as China holds too many currency reserves, not too little as those countries did.

So... put your faith in an communist/fascist country with screwed up financial institutions and policies. Just better hope nothing bad happens (too bad... it always does eventually). No matter your passionate defense of China, the results will be disastrous to the US as well. The impact of China and their financial policy on the US is huge.
by TinCan on Thu Aug 09, 07 12:24am [+]

Patch, who ever said that China doesn't have Debt? I've heard many times that China has debt
by aya on Thu Aug 09, 07 7:48pm [+]

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