EVOLUTION: A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY?

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EVOLUTION: A MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY?


[+] serious ballot by ynohtna5
ACTIVE Mon Nov 19, 07 - Tue Nov 18, 08

One of the foundational beliefs of Darwinian evolution is that organism evolve by random mutation. The learned that the MINIMUM number of mutations necessary to produce the simplest new structure in an organism is five, and these five mutations must be the proper type and must affect five genes that are functionally related. In other words, not just any five mutations will do. Mutations of any kind are believed to occur once in every 100,000 gene replications. Assuming that the first single-celled organism had 10,000 genes, one mutation would exist for every ten cells. Since only one in every 1,000 mutations is non-harmful, there would be only one non-harmful mutation in a population of 10,000 such cells. The odds that this one non-harmful mutation would affect a particular gene, however, is 1 in 10,000 (since there are 10,000 genes). Therefore, one would need a population of 100,000,000 cells before one of them would be expected to possess a non-harmful mutation of a specific gene.
The odds of a single cell possessing non-harmful mutations of five specific (functionally related) genes is the product of their separate probabilities. In other words, the probability is 1 in 10^8 X 10^8 X 10^8 X 10^8 X 10^8, or 1 in 10^40. If one hundred trillion (10^14) bacteria were produced every second for five billion years (10^17 seconds), the resulting population (10^31) would be only 1/1,000,000,000 of what was needed! So far 5 billion years has passed, and you still haven't reached the first mutation necessary for evolution. The earth is estimated to be between 5 to 7 billion years old.

How do you account for a naturalistic life with these odds?

i don't know
a problem with these numbers (explain)
evolution is not true
other

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COMMENTS:
Voted : a problem with these numbers (explain)
"Mutations of any kind are believed to occur once in every 100,000 gene replications. Assuming that the first single-celled organism had 10,000 genes, one mutation would exist for every ten cells."

Math based on beliefs and assumptions?

And perhaps a misplaced decimnal point.102
by _Beelzebubba on Mon Nov 19, 07 9:57am [+]

Voted : evolution is not true
evolutionists always throw out anything and everything that would cast doubt on their already formed conclusions...adaptation ? Yes. evolution ? No.
by thesoothsayer on Mon Nov 19, 07 10:18am [+]

And yet we look so much like monkeys. See the resemblance?
by skylab on Mon Nov 19, 07 10:36am [+]

Voted : other
Deity made the mess ab initio, IMO, and He/She tossed in evolution just to cock up the works.
by Truthseeker013 on Mon Nov 19, 07 12:35pm [+]

I might admit that I don't know much about evolution, well, the intraciies anyway, but I would like to heard creationists and the like actually try and prove their theories.
by aya on Mon Nov 19, 07 1:20pm [+]

Oddz, schmoddz!
Evolution has been proven over and over, as has Earth cooling and heating cycles.
Religion (Baptist, Islam, et c,) can be a a comfort, but that is all it is. Well, and a place to show off your new clothes.
by Guest User from [66.141.23.131] on Mon Nov 19, 07 3:43pm [+]

hmm wonder why the choices weren't left open :p
Nevermind, I know!
by Jyl on Mon Nov 19, 07 7:42pm [+]

Scientists suck so much really.. Death to all scientists, I say!
hehe
by Jyl on Mon Nov 19, 07 7:43pm [+]

At the end of the day, evolution is still a THEORY...
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 12:56am [+]

Maybe I'm the only one in the world who's heard hours of discussion lately by scientists on the meaning of the word "THEORY"

Those pesky pesky scientists, grrrr
by Jyl on Tue Nov 20, 07 5:05am [+]

Most scientists must be atheists that believe everything can be explained logically. get back to me when you can make some MATTER...from NOTHING.
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 6:59am [+]

Well, I'd like to hear some validations that creationism is real, while we're at it.
by aya on Tue Nov 20, 07 8:11am [+]

Let's suppose MATTER was not created...you tell me where it came from...or why...or how...if you can't do that, any argument put forth is moot.
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 11:46am [+]

It is impossible to have a sum if you don't know what you are adding up...
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 11:56am [+]

see ballot #89616
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 12:01pm [+]

atheists dismiss the first cause as irrelevant. At least evolution has more scientific grounding than say, 'intelligent' design.

"if you can't do that, any argument put forth is moot."

Can you put forth an arguement why creationism is valid?
by aya on Tue Nov 20, 07 1:20pm [+]

Besides, all that, COSMOLOGY is the branch that deals with the theory of the first cause, etc. Evolution doesn't. It doesn't need to
by aya on Tue Nov 20, 07 1:21pm [+]

^^If you don't know where you are coming from or where you've been how can you be sure of where your are or where you're going ? Good lawyers also dismiss anything that would shoot holes in their version of what they want you to believe...if you looked at a lawnmower and a car for the first time, knowing absolutely nothing about neither, you would see similarities, both have motors and wheels and maybe a sparkplug but there's so much more than meets the eye...looking back billions of years through the prisms of time makes it totally impossible to be certain but it's human nature to explain what can never be proven...stay tuned and the scientists will change their story/theories or whatever and brainwashed believers will "bite" whatever scenarios they wish to promote to the gullible.
by thesoothsayer on Tue Nov 20, 07 8:29pm [+]

Why do you have a coccyx, 5ynohtna?

Did your skygod put it there a few thousand years ago?
by ramaDUNG on Wed Nov 21, 07 6:42am [+]

thesoothsayer, does the Earth being 6,000 years old have any credibility? Prove it!
by aya on Wed Nov 21, 07 8:34am [+]

The ones who trust centuries of experimentation and discovery and scientific world-consensus are the "brainwashed believers"?

now THIS is what I come to Best & Worst for.. I HAVE to show this argument around to other sites :p
by Jyl on Wed Nov 21, 07 11:52am [+]

"Besides, all that, COSMOLOGY is the branch that deals with the theory of the first cause, etc. Evolution doesn't. It doesn't need to "
aya:
Get back to me when you deal with the first cause...then, maybe we can sum this up...by the way, matter is all around you, you don't have to go anywhere to study it, besides you can't live long enough to go back to the "big bang" anyway...understanding properties without understanding origins amounts to not understanding neither...incorporate who, what, where, how, and why...
by thesoothsayer on Wed Nov 21, 07 3:32pm [+]

***see ballot #110914 ***
by thesoothsayer on Wed Nov 21, 07 9:59pm [+]

there is nothing random about evolution.
by neothe1 on Wed Nov 21, 07 11:49pm [+]

"aya:
Get back to me when you deal with the first cause...then, maybe we can sum this up...by the way, matter is all around you, you don't have to go anywhere to study it, besides you can't live long enough to go back to the "big bang" anyway...understanding properties without understanding origins amounts to not understanding neither...incorporate who, what, where, how, and why... "

soothsayer, get back to me when you can find a valid arguement for biblical creation, which by the way, does not mention domination over those lovely microsopic parasites that can enter your system and cause blindess. Belief in God and belief in evolution does not have to be mutually exclusive. You are too worried about a first cause, and for that matter, if we get into an arguement of first cause with creation, if all things on Earth were created by god, then who created him?
by aya on Thu Nov 22, 07 8:53am [+]






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