COMMENTS:
When...not positive its gonna happen. If it does, it depends on the might China uses. For example, if the US/UK went all out, it wouldn't have been even 3 weeks to defeat the formal Iraqi army.I wonder if a resistance would form? I'd give it a week tops.
I think China would rather do it like they did with Hong Kong rather than direct military action. However, a point that escapes most Americans is that China is in it for the long haul over Taiwan and will persist until they get their way.
To paraphrase Powers Boothe in "Red Dawn", there are about a billion screamin' Chinamen waiting for the word. When it comes, no matter how much weaponry Taiwan has, it's just a matter of them being swamped.
About 3 days.
The US & UK will scream and fume, but due to non-military considerations (mostly economic), I doubt they will intervene militarily.
Actually, I think the Taiwanese would do better than most folks seem to think in a war with China. They have the latest U.S. aircraft and fire-control systems, the most advanced shore-to-ship missles, and a highly-trained, high morale army who knows if they lose, it means the end of their way of life. What nation does this remind you of? Exactly: Israel. I like Taiwan's chances in a war. You can't march an army across the water, and I suspect getting those ships to shore against the well-prepared Taiwanese would be a really tough nut to crack.
That said, I don't think China will invade Taiwan in the foreseeable future. First, they understand the military equation well. Second, and perhaps most important, China owns over fifty percent of America's debt. Would they risk losing that money for an adventure in Taiwan that might embarrass them in front of the world, and lead to a wider conflict? I don't think so.
Griff makes some excellent points.
Before the world wars people said economic considerations would prevent the powers from going to war with each other, they were wrong and I don't think we've learned our lesson.
Taiwan alone would be quickly overrun but China would be badly hurt by American air attacks.
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